Geopolitical tensions, the evolution of monetary policies and the maturity of the economic cycle are behind the drop of the markets in the last quarter of 2018. Every indicator suggests that, once the turning point is reached, 2019 will be marked by more moderate growth rates. The ECB's announcement of postponing the rate rise "at least" until the end of the year coincides with IE Business School Finance professor Ignacio Muñoz-Alonso's analysis in the latest #VideoanalysisFAES.
- There are signs of improvement with regard to monetary policies, one of the major sources of concern for financial markets.
- In the US, inflation is expected to remain below 2 percent, while interest rates are expected to fall below 3 percent.In Europe, the replacement of Mario Draghi at the head of the ECB raises important questions about the orientation of monetary policy.
- There is a sense of 'injury time' between agents and operators.
- The geopolitical interest of the markets focuses on the trade dispute between the US and China, the likely extension of the Brexit negotiation period and the situation in Italy.