2019 promised economically until, after the summer, the international organizations and services of studies substantially revised downwards the economic growth both worldwide and Spanish. FAES brought together economists Fernando Fernández, professor at IE Business School, and Manuel Balmaseda, director of Economic Studies at CEMEX, to analyse the data showing the slowdown and the global uncertainty environment.
In a #DiálogosFAES with Miguel Marín, from the Foundation's Economics area, both explain why Spain endures more than other countries in terms of growth and where our country's main vulnerabilities reside in the face of a possible sudden stop and a global crisis. Assuming that there will be a government after the 10N elections, what must be done to reverse the foreseeable crisis, at least mitigate its effect?
CONFIRMATION OF THE DECELERATION
Manuel Balmaseda | "The slowdown has been observed and important risks have materialized: greater risk of recession in the United States, intensification of the trade war between the United States and China and worsening of the Brexit"
Fernando Fernández | "Much of this slowdown has to do with economic policy errors"
EUROPE AND GERMANY
Fernando Fernández | "Germany is an example of a 'self-induced' recession: its main export industry is the automobile and it has decided to put an end to diesel, which obviously has consequences for growth"
Manuel Balmaseda | "Germany has been practically in recession since the latter part of 2018. We economists thought it was transitory, but there are fundamental factors behind that situation”
Fernando Fernández | "Spain is better resisting the slowdown thanks to the structural adjustments made after the outbreak of the crisis. The problem is that this momentum is drying up"
"After more than four years of growth, we still have an unemployment rate close to 14 percent. The labour market must be made more flexible and liberalised in order to create jobs with lower levels of growth"
Manuel Balmaseda | "Spain's main problem is uncertainty. We must create an environment of certainty, and we will only achieve it with a clear regulatory framework, with efficient and independent institutions and with structural reforms"
Translation by Blanca Domínguez